Technical Memorandum

DATE:   October 1, 2018

TO:         Massachusetts Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration

FROM:   Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization Staff

RE:         Boston Region MPO Baseline CMAQ Performance Plan (2018)

The Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) has developed this baseline Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement (CMAQ) performance plan for the first federal performance period (2018–21) in accordance with 23 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 490.107(c)(3) and 23 US Code Part 149(l). This plan provides the following information:

• Baseline information pertaining to federally required CMAQ performance measures
• Targets for federally required CMAQ performance measures
• A description of CMAQ projects scheduled for funding and information on the potential benefits of these projects with respect to CMAQ performance measures

The Boston Region MPO has submitted this baseline CMAQ Performance Plan for inclusion with the Massachusetts’ October 2018 Performance Management Form. 

1          Boston Region MPO CMAQ Applicability Determinations

1.1      Applicability for On-Road Mobile Source Emissions Measure

The Boston Region MPO serves 97 municipalities in eastern Massachusetts. It includes a limited maintenance area for carbon monoxide in Waltham. On April 22, 2002, the City of Waltham was redesignated as being in attainment for carbon-monoxide emissions with an EPA-approved limited maintenance plan. While the MPO is not required to perform modeling analysis for a conformity determination for carbon monoxide, the MPO is still required to provide a status report on the timely implementation of projects and programs that will reduce emission from transportation sources—so-called transportation control measures—which are included in the Massachusetts State Implementation Plan. The MPO provides this information in annual updates to its Transportation Improvement Program (TIP).

The Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) October 2017 applicability determination for CMAQ traffic congestion and on-road mobile source emissions measures determined that the Boston Region MPO is required to develop a CMAQ performance plan and establish two-year and four-year targets for the on-road mobile source emissions measure.1 These two-year and four-year targets will pertain to carbon monoxide emissions.

1.2      Applicability for Traffic Congestion Measures

The Boston Region MPO is part of the Boston MA-NH-RI Urbanized Area (UZA), as established by the 2010 US Census. A map of the Boston MA-NH-RI UZA with a list of the states and MPOs within the UZA is shown in Figure 1. The FHWA’s October 2017 applicability determination for CMAQ traffic congestion and on-road mobile source emissions measures determined that targets for the traffic congestion measures must be established for the Boston MA-NH-RI UZA, and that the Boston Region MPO must participate in this target-setting process.2

Figure 1
Boston UZA Boundaries and Overlapping States and MPOs

2          Baseline Conditions and Performance

2.1      On-Road Mobile Source Emissions Measure Baseline Value

The total emissions reduction measure, which addresses on-road mobile source emissions, is the cumulative estimated emission reductions for all CMAQ funded projects of each applicable criteria pollutant (ozone [03], carbon monoxide [CO], and particulate matter [PM2.5 and PM 10]) and precursor (volatile organic compounds [VOC] and oxides of nitrogen [NOx]) for which the area within the MPO is designated nonattainment or maintenance. To establish a baseline for this measure, Boston Region MPO staff reviewed listings of obligated projects and information in the CMAQ Public Access system to identify CMAQ-funded projects that would have been obligated in federal fiscal years (FFY) 2014–17. When conducting this review, MPO staff did not identify any projects that were both 1) located in Waltham and 2) funded all or in part with CMAQ dollars. As a result, MPO staff identified a baseline level of carbon monoxide emissions reduction that is equal to zero daily kilograms. This information is summarized in Table 1.

Table 1
Boston Region MPO Baseline for Total Emissions Reduction Measure

Note: A maintenance area for carbon monoxide is located in Waltham.

CMAQ = Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality. CO = carbon monoxide. FFY = federal fiscal year.

Source: Boston Region MPO.

2.2      Baseline Values for Traffic Congestion Measures

FHWA established two CMAQ performance measures related to traffic congestion, which are to be measured for identified UZAs:

• Annual hours of peak hour excessive delay (PHED) per capita
• Percent of non-single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) travel

Baseline Value for Percent of Non-SOV Travel

The Boston UZA baseline for this measure was established using 2012–16 US American Community Survey (ACS) estimates, which were the most recent five-year estimates available as of calendar year (CY) 2017.3 Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT), New Hampshire Department of Transportation (NH DOT), and MPO staff reviewed estimates of means of transportation to work for workers ages 16 and older, as outlined in ACS tables DP03 (“Selected Economic Characteristics”), S0801 (“Commuting Characteristics by Sex”), and others. The baseline for the share of non-SOV travel in the Boston UZA was developed by subtracting the estimated share of workers ages 16 and older who drove alone from 100 percent. Table 2 lists the resulting baseline value for the share of non-SOV travel for the Boston UZA, which is 33.6 percent.

Table 2
Boston UZA Baseline for Percent of Non-SOV Travel Measure

ACS = US American Community Survey. CMAQ = Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality. UZA = urbanized area.

Sources: ACS.

Baseline Value for Annual Hours of PHED Per Capita

The annual hours of PHED per capita measure estimates the expected delay experienced by a UZA’s population from travel on the National Highway System (NHS) during peak periods. MassDOT coordinated with Cambridge Systematics and NH DOT to develop a baseline estimate for this measure using the data elements outlined in Table 3.

Table 3
Data Elements for Calculating Annual Hours
of PHED Per Capita for the Boston UZA

AADT = Average Annual Daily Traffic. ACS = US American Community Survey. FHWA = Federal Highway Administration. HPMS = Highway Performance Monitoring System. MA = Massachusetts. MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area. NH = New Hampshire. NPMRDS = National Performance Management Research Data Set. UZA = Urbanized Area.

Source: MassDOT, NH DOT, and Boston Region MPO

Table 4 lists the components of the 2017 baseline value measure, including 1) a PHED estimate that reflects the NHS network within the Boston UZA and 2) the UZA population. Using these components, MassDOT, Cambridge Systematics, and NH DOT identified a baseline value of 18.3 annual hours of PHED per capita.

Table 4
Boston UZA Baseline for Annual Hours of PHED Per Capita

^a Cambridge Systematics aggregated 2012–16 ACS population estimates at the block group level to estimate the population for the portion of the UZA in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. They then inflated this estimate for 2017 by applying information on expected population growth in the Boston Metropolitan Statistical area between 2016 and 2017.

MA = Massachusetts. NH = New Hampshire. PHED = peak hour excessive delay. UZA = urbanized area.

Sources: National Performance Management Research Data Set, FHWA, MassDOT, and NH DOT.

3          Performance Targets

3.1      MPO Targets for the On-Road Mobile Source Emissions Measure

For the first federal performance-monitoring period (2018–21), the Boston Region MPO is required to set the following targets for the total emissions reduction measure with respect to its carbon monoxide maintenance area in Waltham:

• A two-year target reflecting daily emissions reduction from applicable projects in the CMAQ Public Access System for FFY 2018 and 2019  
• A four-year target reflecting daily emissions reduction from applicable projects in the CMAQ Public Access System for FFYs 2018–21

Boston Region MPO staff reviewed transportation projects programmed in its FFY 2018–22 and FFY 2019–23 TIPs to identify any that are 1) located in Waltham and 2) funded all or in part with CMAQ dollars. MPO staff did not identify any projects that met both of these criteria in its TIPs for the years FFYs 2018–21. As a result, the MPO has set its two-year and four-year carbon monoxide emissions reductions targets equal to the baseline value of zero kilograms per day. Table 5 summarizes this information.

Table 5
Boston Region MPO Emissions Reduction Targets

Note: A maintenance area for carbon monoxide is located in Waltham.

CMAQ = Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality. CO = carbon monoxide. FFY = federal fiscal year.

Sources: Boston Region MPO.

The Boston Region MPO took action to adopt these emissions reduction performance targets on September 20, 2018.

3.2      Boston UZA Targets for Traffic Congestion Measures 

Targets for Percent of Non-SOV Travel

MassDOT, NH DOT, the Boston Region MPO, and the Northern Middlesex Council of Governments (NMCOG) are required to establish the following targets for the Boston UZA for the percent of non-SOV travel measure:

• A two-year target, which reflects expected performance on this measure as of the end of calendar year (CY) 2019
• A four-year target, which reflects expected performance on this measure as of the end of CY 2021

To develop these targets, MassDOT and NH DOT used a series of five ACS five-year period estimates—from 2012 (2008–12 ACS estimate) to 2016 (2012–16 ACS estimate)—to create a linear trend line. MassDOT and NH DOT then used this trend line to project ACS five-year estimates that would reflect expected conditions as of the end of CY 2019 (the expected 2015–19 ACS estimate) and as of the end of CY 2021 (the expected 2017–21 ACS estimate) (Figure 2).

MassDOT and NH DOT selected these projected values as the Boston UZA targets for the percent of non-SOV travel, and established these values as the two-year and four-year targets for the Boston UZA.

Figure 2
Historic Value and Targets for the
Percent of Non-SOV Travel in the Boston UZA

ACS = US American Community Survey. SOV = single-occupancy vehicle. UZA = urbanized area.

Sources: US Census Bureau, 2012-16 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates; MassDOT; and NH DOT.

The Boston Region MPO is required to report UZA targets for the percent of non-SOV travel measure that are identical to those reported by MassDOT and NH DOT. The Boston Region MPO took action to adopt these targets for the percent of non-SOV travel measure on September 20, 2018. These target values are summarized in Table 6.

Table 6
Boston UZA Targets for the Percent of Non-SOV Travel Measure

ACS = US American Community Survey. CMAQ = Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality. CY = calendar year. UZA = urbanized area.

Sources: MassDOT, NH DOT, and ACS.

Targets for Annual Hours of PHED Per Capita

MassDOT, NH DOT, the Boston Region MPO, and the NMCOG are required to establish a four-year target for the annual hours of PHED per capita per measure, which reflects expected performance on this measure as of the end of CY 2021. These agencies have also opted to report a two-year target for this measure, which reflects expected performance as of the end of CY 2019.

As discussed in Section 2.2, MassDOT, Cambridge Systematics, and NH DOT coordinated with one another to process NPMRDS (National Performance Management Research Data Set) and other data to create a baseline value for the Boston UZA for the annual hours of PHED per capita per measure. They only examined NPMRDS travel-time data from CY 2017 when developing targets for the PHED measure because of the differences in features between the Version 1 and Version 2 NPMRDS data sets. When setting targets, these agencies considered guidance from FHWA to states and MPOs, which states that because there are differences between Versions 1 and 2 of the NPMRDS, using multiple years of data to set targets may not be the best approach, especially for four-year targets.4 MassDOT and NH DOT elected to set both a two-year target (reflecting performance as of the end of CY 2019) and a four-year target (reflecting performance as of the end of CY 2021) equal to the 2017 baseline value—18.3 annual hours of PHED per capita—and established these targets for the UZA.

The Boston Region MPO is required to report UZA targets for the annual hours of PHED per capita measure that are identical to those reported by MassDOT and NH DOT. The Boston Region MPO took action to adopt these targets for the annual hours of PHED per capita measure on September 20, 2018. These target values are summarized in Table 7.

Table 7
Boston UZA Targets for the Annual Hours of PHED per Capita Measure

CMAQ = Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality. CY = calendar year. NPMRDS = National Performance Management Research Data Set. PHED = peak hour excessive delay. UZA = urbanized area.

Sources: NPMRDS, FHWA, MassDOT, NH DOT, and ACS.

4          Descriptions of CMAQ-Funded Projects

Table 8 describes projects in the Boston region that were programmed to receive CMAQ funding in FFYs 2018 or are programmed to receive CMAQ funding in FFYs 2019, 2020, 2021. This table includes projects that are or have been programmed by the Boston Region MPO or by MassDOT. For each project, it provides

• a project description;
• a project category;
• expected federal fiscal year(s) for project programming and obligation; and
• qualitative information on the potential impacts that each project may have related to the CMAQ traffic congestion measures, based on past project evaluation for CMAQ eligibility and other data.

Because none of these projects are located in the carbon monoxide limited maintenance area in Waltham, Table 8 does not include information about expected carbon monoxide emissions reduction. 

Table 8
CMAQ-funded Transportation Projects Programmed in the Boston Region

5          Contact Information

Questions pertaining to this CMAQ Performance Plan can be addressed to Michelle Scott or Anne McGahan of Boston Region MPO staff. Staff contact information is available at ctps.org/ctps_staff.